Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 4 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
17 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest <1 km from here.
This alert expired on 17 September 2026 at 03:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 7th strongest of the 34 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 July 2026. The last comparable one was on 16 September 2026. 9 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flood Warning issued September 16 at 5:04PM MST until September 16 at 8:00PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ
Urban PEI: 4,812,734 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 17 July 2026
- September 17, 2026 · score 46 · 0.0 km
- September 16, 2026 · score 46 · 10.6 km
- August 13, 2026 · score 52 · 12.6 km
How we know
3 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.91/1 |
| Coordinates | 33.6454, -112.0128 |
| Nearest City | Deer Valley (12 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 4.8M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-17T00:04:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.3d760ac290222b624ef46ef43e19b23cc63c30fd.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-17T00:04:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-17T00:10:37.690Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-17T02:34:47.263Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T02:29:27.969Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T02:24:08.084Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T02:13:28.116Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T02:08:08.707Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T02:02:50.922Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:57:31.613Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:52:12.232Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:46:50.877Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:41:30.836Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:30:51.205Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:25:32.776Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:20:12.121Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:14:52.898Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:09:33.398Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T01:04:13.798Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T00:58:55.691Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T00:48:18.441Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T00:43:00.550Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T00:37:41.079Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Expected |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Maricopa, AZ |
| Headline | Flood Warning issued September 16 at 5:04PM MST until September 16 at 8:00PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-16T20:00:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Phoenix AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3d760ac290222b624ef46ef43e19b23cc63c30fd.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cbfae99e13501ad8bab78e99edbd7f9c2022484c.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 2 W East Mesa |
| Spc County | Maricopa |
| Spc State | AZ |
| Spc Comments | Downed power lines in the area of Higley Road to 56th street and Adobe Road to Main Street in Mesa. Timing estimated from radar. (PSR) |
| Iem TypeSummary | F |
| Iem City | 2 N North Scottsdale |
| Iem County | Maricopa |
| Iem State | AZ |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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